It was somewhat shocking to hear that the CDC models projected a possible 100,000 to 240,000 deaths from Covid-19 over the next couple of months.
Like any model, the accuracy of the prediction is based on what information was used to create the model. According to Dr. Deborah Birx of the CDC, the model results were largely influenced by data from New York, New Jersey, Italy and Spain. These are areas that don’t appear have the ‘peak’ of their disease curve. In others words, those places could continue on the rapid increase path they are or not.
The dark curve below is the number of deaths if we did nothing…no social distancing, no hand washing etc. The smaller curve is the predicted deaths based on current information.
THE MODEL IS ONLY A PREDICTION BASED ON CERTAIN ASSUMPTIONS.
For instance, it does not take into account that more testing means more people are getting treatament earlier, there are several treatments being tested (eg hydroxyquinilone), more ventilators are being made available and there are more strict controls being put into place re: travel restrictions.
All of these factors, plus the factor that no country has come anywhere near this number of deaths even though it seems the ‘peak of the number of deaths’ seems to occur in less than 30 after the 100th case is detected.
The 100,000 number can not be dismissed, but it doesn’t mean it will happen.
The disease is passed on person to person – isolate, isolate-you can’t tell who has it, you may not be able to tell if you have it. The colored graph below is for cases of Covid 19 – not fatalities. It shows that there appears to be leveling off between 20-30 days after the 100 case is reported. This gives us another 3 weeks or so level off.
