The Covid 19 Prediction

I was shocked at the models Dr. Birx and Fauci presented yesterday regarding the projected deaths from Covid 19.  The models and graphs showed that there could be 100,000 to 240,000 deaths from Covid 19 within the next couple of months.

model 1

However, they cautioned that this model is based on current data is significantly influenced by ‘hot spots’ such as New York, New Jersey, Italy and Spain.  The model also does not take into account the increasing improvements in treatments, detection and continued social distancing.

The following graph is shows the number of cases in each country AFTER the first 100 cases were reported.  This is done as the early rate of increase of detecting the disease varies greatly and is dependent on other factors such as how quickly tests were avaialble.   It is important to note that an increase in cases is a combination of increases in actual cases and also increased amount of testing.  This chart does not indicate the severity of the disease – only if it was diagnosed.

Nonetheless, the lines for China an South Korea appear to ‘flatten’ after 20-30 days after the 100th case was confirmed.  As you can see from the blue US line, we are just now entering this 20-30 day window.  Hopefully, our curve will also flatten, if it does, then we will NOT reach the 100,000 deaths predicted by the model.  Itlay (dark green) is further out in time and beyond the 30 days, but perhaps the curve is flattening – only time will tell.

world deaths edit

The following graph is number of deaths in each country.  If you look closely, there are a number of countries that seem to ‘flatten’ after 20-30 days after cases were confirmed.  Note that the curves actually start on different days, but they are all overlayed so that the rate of improvement can be seen.  China is ‘off the chart’ but has the same shape as the South Korean data.



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