Covid 19 in California

Because so many of my family and close friends are in California.  I thought I’d provide an update on some of the latest numbers.

April 5, 2020.  There are currently 334,730 confirmed cases and 9572 deaths due to Covid 19.  In the US.  California accounts for 14,812 of these cases and 344 deaths.  California has the 4th highest number of cases after New York, New Jersey and Michigan.

IF the process was random, there are 378 cases of Covid 19 for every million Californians so, the chance of getting is numerically small, but in reality, the odds go up the more you are in contact with people.  If you bump into the wrong person, that’s all it will take.  Also, if you are in a ‘hot spot’, your chances of getting it are much higher.

Within California over half of the cases and half of the deaths are in Los Angeles, San Diego and Santa Clara Counties.  This illustrated in the map below.

ca map

When will the ‘peak’ arrive?  There is little data to go on, but the data from China and South Korea indicate that the curve flattens (new cases and deaths decrease) somewhere between 20 and 30 days after the 50th case has been confirmed.  IF (and it’s a big IF), this hold, then the peak for Ca and most of the US should come before the end of April.

top usWe are looking for the dark blue squares to become lighter blue – that will signal the turn down in the curves.

You already know this, but the disease is primarily passed person to person – stay distant…if you don’t come into contact someone, you probably won’t get it.  Also, up to 50% of infected people will have either no or very mild symptoms, so feeling ok is does NOT mean infection is not present.


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