Two weeks ago, health models predicted that there would be over 6000 deaths by May. Last week, the model predicted a little more than 5000 deaths. Today, the models again decrease the predicted of deaths to 1783 by mid April. There is still uncertainty over when the ‘peak’ will be, but it is possible that it may come earlier than the current May estimate. The next week will be an important time to watch the data.
The trends for the past 3 days show a lowering of the rates of hospitalization to 2.1% (was over 10% a week ago). This was good enough that California loaned 500 ventilators to other states this week.
It’s too early to say with certainty, but the policies of social distancing, hand washing etc. may be working and that is possible that the effects of the virus will be significantly lower than predicted just over a week ago for not just California but the nation.
It is more important now, even more than before that we continue to social distance…the virus is still infecting thousands of people/day and many people are infected and don’t know it. Isolation is difficult but it keeps the infected and uninfected apart.